Radian Group’s second quarter was met with a significant negative market reaction, as shares declined following the company’s flat revenue performance and a miss on Wall Street’s top-line expectations. Management pointed to strong loan persistency and a high-quality mortgage insurance portfolio as key drivers of earnings stability. CEO Richard Thornberry noted, “Our primary mortgage insurance in force grew to another all-time high,” but acknowledged that operational efficiency and disciplined capital management were crucial amid ongoing housing market pressures. The company’s operating margin contraction reflected increased expenses linked to incentive grants and Conduit-related volatility.
Is now the time to buy RDN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Radian Group (RDN) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $318 million vs analyst estimates of $324.2 million (flat year on year, 1.9% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.01 vs analyst estimates of $0.98 (3.6% beat)
- Adjusted Operating Income: $173.2 million (54.5% margin, 5.9% year-on-year decline)
- Operating Margin: 55%, down from 58.6% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $4.69 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Radian Group’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Douglas Michael Harter (UBS) pressed for details on targeted holding company liquidity and the sustainability of capital returns. CFO Sumita Pandit explained that current liquidity is above their comfort threshold and that future dividends from subsidiaries will largely track statutory net income.
- Bose Thomas George (KBW) asked about the impact of loan mark-to-market adjustments in the Conduit segment. CEO Richard Thornberry clarified that Conduit volatility, particularly from interest-only instruments, resulted in a $9 million impact this quarter, with hedging limiting further risk.
- Bose Thomas George (KBW) followed up on the breakeven timeline for the former Home Genius businesses, now grouped in All Other. Thornberry indicated Title business performance has been resilient, while Real Estate services are more exposed to higher rates, and strategic reviews are ongoing.
- Douglas Michael Harter (UBS) inquired about the predictability of future subsidiary dividends. Pandit responded that dividend capacity is mechanically tied to statutory net income and that maximizing upstream dividends remains a strategic priority.
- No further analyst questions on the call.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) whether loan persistency remains resilient as interest rate dynamics evolve, (2) trends in default and cure activity as regional housing markets shift, and (3) management’s ability to sustain capital returns while navigating ongoing volatility in its Conduit segment. Progress on expense discipline and the impact of discontinued real estate tech investments will also be key signposts.
Radian Group currently trades at $34.66, up from $33.56 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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