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5 Insightful Analyst Questions From American Airlines’s Q4 Earnings Call

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American Airlines’ latest quarter drew a negative market reaction, as adjusted profit and margins fell well below Wall Street’s expectations despite revenue meeting consensus. Management attributed the underperformance primarily to the significant operational disruption caused by winter storm Fern, which forced over 9,000 flight cancellations, especially at major hubs such as Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte. CEO Robert Isom described the weather event as “the largest weather-related operational disruption in our history,” emphasizing its outsized impact on both operations and revenue.

Is now the time to buy AAL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

American Airlines (AAL) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $14 billion vs analyst estimates of $14.04 billion (2.5% year-on-year growth, in line)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.16 vs analyst expectations of $0.35 (54.6% miss)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $961 million vs analyst estimates of $1.49 billion (6.9% margin, 35.4% miss)
  • Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $2.20 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 11.4%
  • Operating Margin: 3.2%, down from 8.3% in the same quarter last year
  • Revenue Passenger Miles: 61.6 billion, up 920 million year on year
  • Market Capitalization: $9.04 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From American Airlines’s Q4 Earnings Call

  • Connor Cunningham (Amelius Research) pressed on hub profitability, particularly Chicago, and CEO Robert Isom emphasized restoration to pre-pandemic capacity and average network profitability, citing a 20% increase in loyalty and credit card acquisitions there.
  • Katie O'Brien (Goldman Sachs) questioned the pace of premium seat growth and its revenue impact. Chief Commercial Officer Nat Pieper highlighted continued strong premium demand, with new aircraft deliveries and retrofits accelerating the premium mix in 2026.
  • Jamie Baker (JPMorgan Securities) asked what was driving the expected improvement in American’s share of industry profits. Isom attributed the outlook to both improved macroeconomic conditions and American’s premium and network strategies.
  • Michael Linenberg (Deutsche Bank) inquired about risks of DFW hub expansion given weather disruptions. Isom explained infrastructure and operational changes aimed at enhancing reliability, including a move to a 13-bank schedule and new terminal facilities.
  • Atul Maswari (UBS) sought clarity on how current booking trends relate to full-year guidance. CFO Devon May confirmed that sustained strong bookings would push results toward the higher end of guidance, but the forecast does not assume this strength persists all year.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will closely watch (1) the pace and profitability of premium seat expansion and aircraft retrofits, (2) continued enrollment and spending growth in the Advantage loyalty and Citi credit card programs, and (3) execution of hub expansion and operational reliability improvements, especially at Dallas-Fort Worth and Chicago. Ongoing cost control and technology adoption will also be important drivers.

American Airlines currently trades at $13.72, down from $14.57 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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