• After extending its historic rally to a high near $86.45 overnight, silver's Cash Index (SIY00) seemed to run out of buy orders. 

• It was noted on CNBC early Monday that an ounce of silver was worth more than a barrel of oil. 

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• China increased its military activity around Taiwan following a weekend earthquake and recent arms sales by US defense companies to Taiwan.

Morning Summary: As I was settling into the office early Monday morning, the last Monday morning of 2025, the host of CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange program Frank Holland asked his guest for thoughts on the fact an ounce of silver is worth more than a barrel of oil. Honestly, I had not thought of it in those terms before, but that is what we’ve seen for much of December. What does this mean? My Blink reaction is the world, except for the United States, continues to move forward with high tech and green technology, continuing the evolution away from fossil fuels. As for markets to start the week, the spotlight was again on silver as the March contract (SIH26) initially rallied as much as $5.47 (7.0%) before running out of buy orders and falling as much as $8.96 from its early high. March was sitting $2.09 (2.7%) lower at this writing. While I don’t think silver has hit a tipping point, it is worth noting the market was showing volatility of 63%. As for news pre-dawn, one of the first stories I saw was China’s military getting more active around Taiwan following the weekend earthquake^[i]. As expected, global equity markets were mostly lower to start the week. 

Corn: The corn market was quietly lower overnight through early Monday morning. It is only fitting I start the last week of 2025 with the opening line that has become synonymous with corn. After closing at the round number $4.50 last Friday, the nearby March issue (ZCH26) posted a 4.0-cent trading range – actually a large range considering what we usually see pre-dawn – from up 1.0 cent to down 3.0 cents on trade volume of 16,000 contracts. March was within sight of its session low at this writing. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, for the week ending Tuesday, December 16 and released on Tuesday, December 23, showed Watson decreased its net-long futures position by 52,870 contracts, fitting with March closing 11.5 cents lower from Tuesday-to-Tuesday. However, March also posted a low daily close on Tuesday, December 16, rallying 11.0 cents through December 23 and 14.5 cents through December 24. This tells us Watson was defending the last of its net-long, likely based on the continued fundamental bullishness indicated by the May-July futures spread. This spread covered 29% calculated full commercial carry at last Friday’s close. The National Corn Index ($CNCI) was calculated at $4.11 last Friday, still below the previous 5-year end of December low near $4.3175. 

Soybeans: The soybean market was also lower to start the new week. March (ZSH26) posted an overnight trading range of 9.25 cents, from up 5.0 cents to down 4.25 cents on trade volume of 24,000 contracts and was sitting 4.0 cents lower at this writing. Part of the story regarding China’s increased military exercises around Taiwan had to do with recent arms sales of $11.1 billion from US defense companies to Taiwan. Additionally, we know the US president has been trying to disrupt the flow of crude oil from Venezuela and Nigeria to China, increasing the likelihood the latter will disrupt supplies of microchips and high-tech electronics available to the United States. This could possibly, likely, leave US soybeans as a pawn in the global game of chess, easily sacrificed as seemingly meaningless pieces. The latest weekly export sales and shipments update showed China, the world’s largest buyer, had 5.136 million metric tons of US soybeans on the books for 2025-2026 as of Thursday, December 11. The risk is some of those tons could be canceled, particularly if confidence grows regarding Brazil’s 2026 production. Last Friday’s close saw the March-May soybean futures spread covering 42% calculated full commercial carry, the most since 43% at the close of Friday, October 24. 

Wheat: Winter wheat markets were in the red pre-dawn as well. Starting with SRW we see the March issue (ZWH26) sitting 2.25 cents lower and 1.0 cent off its overnight low while registering trade volume of 4,200 contracts. Yes, activity was light, lighter than what we saw a couple days last week, leaving the door open to increased volatility as we close out the year. It was a similar story in HRW where the March issue (KEH26) was down 4.0 cents at this writing and 0.75 cent off its session low on trade volume of 2,900 contracts. The latest Commitments of Traders report showed Watson increased its net-short futures position in both markets, 7,070 contracts in HRW and 21,090 contracts in SRW as of Tuesday, December 16. Fundamentally, both markets remain bearish, as indicated by the respective National Cash Indexes priced below previous 5-year end of December lows heading into the last week of the month. As for new-crop, a winter storm plowed across the US Plains and Midwest this past weekend, bringing some snow, but mostly cold, to winter wheat growing areas. The July HRW issue is down 3.5 cents to start the day while July SRW is sitting 2.75 cents in the red.

^[i] I talked about this likelihood in my latest piece: Is AI Driving Silver Prices Higher?