Exact Sciences’ third quarter results received a positive response from the market, reflecting strong revenue growth and robust execution in its core screening business. Management attributed the performance to increased adoption of Cologuard, expansion of care gap programs with payers, and a record number of new ordering providers. CEO Kevin Conroy highlighted the company's ability to screen an additional 250,000 people compared to last year, citing “accelerating health systems integrations and a record number of ordering providers.” The introduction of Cologuard Plus and deepening relationships with health systems were also key contributors.
Is now the time to buy EXAS? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Exact Sciences (EXAS) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $850.7 million vs analyst estimates of $810.2 million (20% year-on-year growth, 5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.24 vs analyst estimates of $0.16 (49.4% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $135.4 million vs analyst estimates of $124.8 million (15.9% margin, 8.5% beat)
- The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $3.23 billion at the midpoint from $3.15 billion, a 2.5% increase
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $475 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $457.3 million
- Operating Margin: -3%, up from -5.6% in the same quarter last year
- Constant Currency Revenue rose 20% year on year (12.8% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $12.54 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Exact Sciences’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Vijay Kumar (Evercore ISI) questioned what drove the screening segment’s acceleration and how sustainable the care gap and rescreening trends are for 2026. CEO Kevin Conroy emphasized commercial execution and territory redesign as key drivers, while CFO Aaron Bloomer referenced the long-term 15% growth target.
- Tycho Peterson (Jefferies) asked about care gap margin impacts and the Cancerguard reimbursement strategy. Bloomer explained care gap volumes bring slightly lower gross margins but strong overall financial impact; Conroy outlined a long-term approach to payer coverage for Cancerguard.
- Patrick Donnelly (Citi) sought updates on the Freenome partnership and internal CRC blood test programs. Conroy clarified timelines for data releases and regulatory steps, reiterating the company’s intent to use its commercial reach for future test launches.
- Bradley Bowers (Mizuho) asked about the pace of transitioning from Cologuard to Cologuard Plus. Conroy confirmed active payer negotiations and a staged sunset plan, with specific details to be shared in future updates.
- Catherine Ramsey (Baird) inquired about the expected revenue contribution from new products like Oncodetect and Cancerguard. Conroy stated these are not material for 2025 but could be significant in subsequent years as adoption builds.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will watch (1) progress in finalizing contracts with the remaining top payers for Cologuard Plus and the pace of sunsetting the original Cologuard, (2) evidence of early adoption and revenue ramp from Cancerguard and Oncodetect, and (3) execution against the company’s cost savings and margin improvement targets. Data readouts from clinical studies in the pipeline and international expansion efforts will also be important markers.
Exact Sciences currently trades at $66.18, down from $67.01 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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