Offerpad experienced a difficult third quarter, with management attributing underperformance to ongoing challenges in the housing market, including affordability pressures and limited mobility. CEO Brian Bair described the period as a “toughest housing cycle in a generation,” noting that higher mortgage rates and subdued transaction activity weighed on results. Nevertheless, Bair emphasized operational improvements, such as cost reductions and technology-driven efficiencies, as key areas where the company has made progress.
Is now the time to buy OPAD? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Offerpad (OPAD) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $132.7 million vs analyst estimates of $139.8 million (36.2% year-on-year decline, 5.1% miss)
- EPS (GAAP): -$0.37 vs analyst expectations of -$0.33 (12.1% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$4.57 million vs analyst estimates of -$2.63 million (-3.4% margin, 73.6% miss)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $112.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $147 million
- Operating Margin: -5.1%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Homes Sold: 367, down 248 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $66.35 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Offerpad’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Dae Lee (JPMorgan) asked about priorities for expanding HomePro, Renovate, and Direct+; CEO Brian Bair stressed maximizing conversion and diversifying buyer channels to meet seller needs as the market evolves.
- Dae Lee (JPMorgan) inquired about the optimal mix between asset-light and traditional transactions to reach profitability; CFO Peter Knag explained the target is a near-even split, with asset-light products expected to drive margin improvement next year.
- Ryan Tomasello (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods) questioned the hiring needs for HomePro and its impact on conversion rates; Bair said automation will allow scaling with minimal headcount while noting early signs show higher demand for cash offers from sellers.
- Ryan Tomasello (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods) followed up on institutional buyer activity in Direct+ and Renovate; Bair detailed growing partnerships with mid-tier funds and new buyer types, though overall volumes remain below historical levels.
- Michael Ng (Goldman Sachs) asked about the path to breakeven and the impact of new leadership; Knag cited fixed cost reductions and transaction growth, while Bair highlighted COO Chris Carpenter’s role in preparing for scalable, disciplined growth.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, StockStory analysts will be monitoring (1) the pace at which asset-light services grow as a proportion of total transactions, (2) the impact of AI-driven automation on operational efficiency and cost structure, and (3) progress toward the 1,000 quarterly transactions target that underpins the company’s path back to profitability. Execution in scaling new services and managing inventory levels will also be closely watched.
Offerpad currently trades at $1.80, down from $2.32 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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