Oshkosh’s third quarter results were met with a notably negative market reaction, as the company’s revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations and year-over-year sales declined. Management attributed this performance to weaker demand in its Access segment, where customers have become more cautious with capital expenditures amid a shifting economic and tariff environment. CEO John Pfeifer highlighted that, despite lower sales volume, Oshkosh maintained double-digit adjusted operating margins, citing strong execution in the Vocational and Transport segments. The company also faced onetime warranty costs in its defense business, which CFO Matt Field said were tied to legacy supply chain disruptions but are not expected to recur.
Is now the time to buy OSK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Oshkosh (OSK) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.69 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.85 billion (1.9% year-on-year decline, 5.8% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $3.20 vs analyst estimates of $3.10 (3.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $330.6 million vs analyst estimates of $347.1 million (12.3% margin, 4.7% miss)
- The company dropped its revenue guidance for the full year to $10.35 billion at the midpoint from $10.6 billion, a 2.4% decrease
- Management lowered its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $10.75 at the midpoint, a 2.3% decrease
- Operating Margin: 9.7%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $13.69 billion at quarter end, down 4% year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.62 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Oshkosh’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Mircea Dobre (Baird) asked about demand visibility in Access and the impact of tariffs on pricing and strategy. CEO John Pfeifer said, “We’re not guiding today, but long-term market drivers remain intact and price increases are planned for 2026.”
- Stephen Volkmann (Jefferies) questioned the company’s ability to offset tariff headwinds in 2026. CFO Matt Field outlined a multi-pronged approach, including supply chain negotiation, engineering, and selective price increases, while noting full mitigation may take time.
- Jamie Cook (Truist Securities) inquired about competitive positioning amid tariffs and the effect of discounting in Access. Pfeifer highlighted Oshkosh’s U.S.-based manufacturing footprint as an advantage and said discounting was moderate, at around 3–4%.
- Tami Zakaria (JPMorgan) asked about the nature of the defense segment warranty charge and Access pricing trends. Field clarified the warranty charge was a onetime event tied to legacy supply chain issues, while Access pricing faced pressure but would shift in 2026.
- Kyle Menges (Citigroup) probed NGDV production challenges and CapEx reductions. Pfeifer said full-rate production is still targeted by year-end, though acknowledged ongoing ramp-up difficulties, while Field attributed lower CapEx to stricter controls and timing.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be watching (1) whether Access equipment demand stabilizes as customers adjust to the new tariff landscape, (2) Oshkosh’s progress in ramping production for the NGDV and other new products, and (3) the company’s ability to manage backlog and sustain margins in the Vocational segment. Additional focus will be on the effectiveness of cost mitigation strategies and the impact of any price increases in 2026.
Oshkosh currently trades at $120.42, down from $137.56 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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