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3 Reasons JLL is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

JLL Cover Image

The past six months have been a windfall for JLL’s shareholders. The company’s stock price has jumped 41.3%, setting a new 52-week high of $354.03 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is now the time to buy JLL, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think JLL Will Underperform?

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're swiping left on JLL for now. Here are three reasons you should be careful with JLL and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints

A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Unfortunately, JLL’s 8.1% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was weak. This was below our standard for the consumer discretionary sector.

JLL Quarterly Revenue

2. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

JLL has shown poor cash profitability over the last two years, giving the company limited opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 2.8%, lousy for a consumer discretionary business.

JLL Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. On average, JLL’s ROIC decreased by 2 percentage points annually over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

JLL Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

We see the value of companies helping consumers, but in the case of JLL, we’re out. After the recent rally, the stock trades at 17.4× forward P/E (or $354.03 per share). This valuation tells us it’s a bit of a market darling with a lot of good news priced in - we think other companies feature superior fundamentals at the moment. We’d recommend looking at a safe-and-steady industrials business benefiting from an upgrade cycle.

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