A prominent futurist predicted on Joe Rogan's podcast that artificial intelligence (AI) will achieve human-level intelligence by 2029, but billionaire and tech mogul Elon Musk claims it will happen by next year.
Famed inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil made what he called a "conservative" estimate about when AI will reach human-level intelligence during an appearance on the popular podcast.
"We're not quite there, but we will be there, and by 2029 it will match any person," he said. "People think that will happen next year or the year after."
Musk responded on X, claiming the timeline would be much shorter.
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"AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year," Musk posted on X. "By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined."
Musk has been outspoken about his concerns regarding AI and the dangers associated with it, often calling for more regulation of the powerful technology.
He has expressed fear that AI could lead to "civilizational destruction" if mismanaged.
"Even if you say that AI doesn’t have agency, well it’s very likely that people will use the AI as a tool in elections," he said in a previous interview with Fox News. "And then, you know, if AI's smart enough, are they using the tool or is the tool using them? So I think things are getting weird, and they’re getting weird fast."
"What's happening is they're training the AI to lie. It's bad," he added. "AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production. In the sense that it has the potential, however, small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction."
Kurzweil explained he had made this prediction at the turn of the 21st century.
"I actually said that in 1999," Kurzweil said. "I said we would match any person by 2029, so 30 years. People thought that was totally crazy. In fact, Stanford had a conference that invited several hundred people from around the world to talk about my prediction, and people thought that this would happen, but not by 2029. They thought it would take 100 years."
Rogan asked Kurzweil if this disparity in opinion was because people have a difficult time grasping the concept of exponential growth, which the futurist explained was "exactly right."
"In fact, still, economists have a linear view," Kurzweil said. "If you say well, it's going to grow exponentially, but yeah, maybe 2% a year. It actually doubles in 14 years."
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Kurzweil, who has also served as Google's director of engineering, is known for his far-flung predictions.
For example, in his book, The Singularity is Near, Kurzweil predicts that human beings would soon "transcend biology" and traverse the universe as immortal cyborgs. He also thinks he will live forever after he uploads his consciousness onto a computer.
